Jays questions that need to be answered by Game 162
1. Who is the GM going forward?
This question is very important to where we go. The longer JP stays on the job, the better his chances are of staying. In Halladay’s most recent comments, he made it sound as if he’s a backer of our general manager, as well as being a fan of Cito Gaston. Barring a bad end to the season, I think it is pretty certain that Cito will be back, but will JP be back to join him? Here are a few scenarios that could play out.
A. Both Cito and JP come back
B. JP is fired, someone different is brought in for the GM job but Cito stays
C. JP is fired, Cito comes back as General Manager and he hires the next Manager of the club.
Don’t count C as too highly unlikely. I feel Cito will be back in some position. He brought a bunch of his own boys, one of them being “Mean Gene” Tenace, and it’s hard to think he would bring in his own guys for half a season, unless he was given more than this year by somebody higher than JP, possibly Paul Godfrey. I think it’s highly unlikely JP comes back, He had a 5 year plan, were in year 7, somebody else should be given a chance. And Cito is in his mid 60's, he might be interested in moving to the front office if he's given full rule.
2. Can this team, with the CORE group, compete in 2009?
This is the most important question needed to be answered. I would say, with maybe a change or two, the core guys are Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Aaron Hill, Scott Rolen and BJ Ryan. These guys are the core for two reasons. One being that at least 3 of them (Wells, Rios and Ryan) have contracts that are too expensive to trade, and secondly, if these guys don’t all produce, we have no chance. If the answer is yes, then we put everything into winning either this year coming up or 2010. The reasons are that Halladay is grumbling about not being happy with the mediocrity and he’s an FA in 2010. Not only that The Yankees and Red Sox have some good young talent coming through the ranks and they will be amazing, not good, amazing for years to come. The economics of baseball has changed. It use to be about signing the big free agents and whoever had the most money got the rings and the playoffs. In the past 5 years it has changed. Prospects and young players have become key. Look at the Rays, their payroll is extremely small and instead they rely on young, homegrown talent to win. With the Red Sox and Yankees keying in on this way of building a team, they have put in mega resources into their North American and Worldwide scouting teams. They’ve built baseball academies in the Caribbean to snag upcoming talent, although hopefully this will stop when or if the World draft gets implemented, and we can only hope it happens soon.
If the answer with the upcoming GM or JP is that this team cannot be competitive with the big boys of the East, we need to look at what our game plan is going forward. I’m not sure if it’s keeping the ship as it is, or making drastic changes, being unloading big contracts. At the very least a decision needs to be made.
3. What areas need to be improved through free agency?
This is important; because I think looking forward we need to forget about big time free agents. We need to begin developing our talent with the type of mentality that, if these guys don’t work, there’s no money for a quality FA to come in. We, as a middle market team, need to not rely on FA’s. The reasons for this are the overpaying you do for those guys, the low quality of 30+ players in the post steroid era and that homegrown talent keeps costs low, and leaves big money for the few areas that need FA’s. Now using this last part of the season as an example, these are the areas I believe we need to shore up.
a. First base
b. Shortstop
c. Left field
d. Designated hitter
e. Right handed reliever
f. One starting pitcher, not a 5-spot one either
This sounds like a lot of areas to fix, but to be honest, were not just a .500 team because of underperforming and injuries. At first, Lyle Overbay strikes out and hits into double plays far too much. He doesn’t hit for home run. Because Rolen doesn’t hit for a huge amount of home runs, it means one of them has to go. Overbay is far worse. I don’t think we will be able to trade him but somebody with a bat needs to come in. Perhaps we could have a platoon at first base, with the other taking DH duties. Shortstop is an area the Jays are actively searching in the trade market for. AJ Burnett is being shopped, and word is the Jays want a ss in return. Left Field is a place where I think Adam Lind can take over, so let’s use the rest of the season to see if he gets that position next year, and we can scratch that off our needs. We have some great left handed relievers, but from the right side it is lacking. Casey Janssen is coming back next year, remember him, but I would like to see if he can start, so we shouldn’t count on him. We also need another quality starting pitcher, preferably a front of the rotation type guy. That’s not something you want to look for on the free agent area, so hopefully we can get an actual reclamation project or we develop another youngster in the 5th spot.
4. Which guys in the system can come up and make the team next year?
Looking at our needs, there are some guys in the system who can take those positions. At starting pitcher we have two guys who could possibly step up. David Purcey regardless of his two starts this year has not been given a chance to see what he has. He’s pitched well in triple A and needs an extended look. Adam Lind got 19 at bats early in the season, and got sent down because he wasn’t producing. Well, we brought him up for an extended look, where he could actually screw up and not have to worry about being sent down, and look what happened, he’s now performing. Do the same with Purcey and let’s see what he’s made of. Another key thing about Purcey, he’s a southpaw, they are extremely valuable in the rotation. Another guy who hasn’t been given a look but is pitching great in double A is Brett Cecil. Cecil was a closer at Maryland but got turned into a started, and a lot of scouts feel he is the best prospect, pitching wise, the jays have right now. He’s only 22, but if we’re losing or not making the playoffs anyways, let’s see what he’s made of. Travis Snider is another guy who should be given a look. He had a tough start at Double A when he got up there earlier this year, but he’s starting to show that power we drafted him for. Look how he does in the next month down there, and then if he is still making progress, let’s see how he does for the last month with the big club. In his short minor league career, Catcher JP Arencibia looks like a star. Also playing in Double A, with just under 300 at-bats is, he’s batting over .300 with some power. The only other person who is looking good is Robinson Diaz, another catcher. If either of these guys is to come up, Zaun or Barajas needs to go by the trade deadline or released or traded through the waiver wire in august.
5. Which potential free agents to target?
Forget K-Rod, Teixeira, Sheets and Sabathia. Unless Uncle Ted is opening up the wallet big time, none of those guys are coming. The Yankees are going to get a starting pitcher this winter, and with all the money coming off the books, they will spend to high heavens to get it. Also, it’s hard for the jays to spend a boat load on a Starting pitcher, when Halladay will be making 14.75 next year, and could be being paid less than the new FA Starting pitcher they could get, how would that look? Here are some free agents the jays could possibly be looking at this winter. Just taking a stab in the dark with these, guys who I think could fit, and fill needed positions I see coming.
Shortstop: Ceasar Izturis, Felipe Lopez, Cristian Guzman
DH: Adam Dunn (If JP is gone only, highly unlikely, but we need a bat with power)
Starting Pitcher: Ryan Dempster
Relievers: Kyle Farnsworth
This is a rough view of the free agents, check for yourself, guys who the big boys won’t go for who could be quality is few, check for yourself (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/2009-mlb-free-a.html) .
Anyways these questions Are things that could be getting and should be answered soon. As always, let me know what you think, write on the wall with your thoughts.
Ozel
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